Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
38 – 14
11 March 2018Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 7.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.7 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Elliot Dee+7.1
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Cory Hill+7.7
- 5Bradley Davies+0.8
- 6Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 7James Davies
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 11Steffan Evans
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Owen Watkin-4.4
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Rob Evans+7.5
- 18Rhodri Jones
- 19Seb Davies
- 20Ellis Jenkins
- 21Aled Davies
- 22Rhys Patchell
- 23Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 5Dean Budd
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Marcello Violi
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Tommaso Castello
- 13Giulio Bisegni
- 14Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 15Matteo Minozzi
Replacements
- 16Oliviero Fabiani
- 17Nicola Quaglio
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 20Giovanni Licata
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Jayden Hayward
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 5 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.