Wales v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
14 – 13
17 March 2018Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v France
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 2.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.4 mm
- Wind
- 37 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Cory Hill+7.7
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 7Josh Navidi+6.8
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Scott Williams+3.8
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Samson Lee
- 19Bradley Davies+0.8
- 20Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 21Aled Davies
- 22Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 23Steffan Evans
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Adrien Pelissie
- 3Cedate Gomes Sa
- 4Paul Gabrillagues
- 5Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Yacouba Camara
- 8Marco Tauleigne
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Remy Grosso
- 12Geoffrey Doumayrou
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 15Benjamin Fall
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Dany Priso
- 18Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 19Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 20Mathieu Babillot
- 21Baptiste Couilloud
- 22Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 23Geoffrey Palis
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.