Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 18
8 September 2018Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 17.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.4 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Rory Arnold-6.0
- 5Izack Rodda
- 6Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Pete Samu-4.3
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Kurtley Beale+3.5
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Matt To'omua-5.6
- 13Reece Hodge
- 14Jack Maddocks
- 15Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
Replacements
- 16Folau Fainga'a
- 17Tom Robertson+2.2
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Rob Simmons-1.5
- 20Ned Hanigan
- 21Joe Powell
- 22Bernard Foley-0.8
- 23Tom Banks
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Warren Whiteley
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Aphiwe Dyantyi
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 18Wilco Louw-1.7
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Francois Louw+9.7
- 21Embrose Papier
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.