New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 36
15 September 2018Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 12.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 37 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Karl Tu'inukuafe
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Liam Squire
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Jordie Barrett+6.6
Replacements
- 16Liam Coltman
- 17Tim Perry
- 18Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Ardie Savea-6.0
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Jack Goodhue
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Warren Whiteley
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Aphiwe Dyantyi
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 18Wilco Louw-1.7
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Francois Louw+9.7
- 21Ross Cronje
- 22Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 23Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 4 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.