South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 12
29 September 2018Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 16 m
- Temperature
- 15.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-33.93779,25.59941 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Sikhumbuzo Notshe
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Aphiwe Dyantyi
- 12André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Wilco Louw-1.7
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Marco van Staden-5.4
- 21Embrose Papier
- 22Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 23Damian Willemse-5.4
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Folau Fainga'a
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Ned Hanigan
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8David Pocock+0.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Kurtley Beale+3.5
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Matt To'omua-5.6
- 13Reece Hodge
- 14Israel Folau
- 15Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
Replacements
- 16Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 17Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Rory Arnold-6.0
- 20Rob Simmons-1.5
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Bernard Foley-0.8
- 23Jack Maddocks
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.