Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 26
9 February 2019Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 8.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Nicola Quaglio
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4David Sisi+1.5
- 5Dean Budd
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Braam Steyn+4.4
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Angelo Esposito
- 12Luca Morisi+0.0
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 15Jayden Hayward
Replacements
- 16Luca Bigi
- 17Cherif Traore
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 20Marco Barbini
- 21Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 22Ian McKinley
- 23Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Elliot Dee+7.1
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 7Thomas Young
- 8Josh Navidi+6.8
- 9Aled Davies
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Owen Watkin-4.4
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Jonah Holmes
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Wyn Jones+0.5
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 20Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 23Hallam Amos
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.