Scotland v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 22
9 February 2019Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 5.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.1 mm
- Wind
- 40 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Dell-3.1
- 2Stuart McInally-3.8
- 3Simon Berghan-0.6
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 7Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 8Josh Strauss+6.2
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Sean Maitland+4.2
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18D'Arcy Rae
- 19Ben Toolis
- 20Rob Harley
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Peter Horne+2.1
- 23Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4James Ryan-8.4
- 5Quinn Roux
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Chris Farrell
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Ultan Dillane
- 20Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 21John Cooney
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.