Italy v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 26
24 February 2019Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 6.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 35 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 5Dean Budd
- 6Jimmy Tuivaiti
- 7Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 8Braam Steyn+4.4
- 9Tito Tebaldi
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Angelo Esposito
- 12Luca Morisi+0.0
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 15Jayden Hayward
Replacements
- 16Luca Bigi
- 17Cherif Traore
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19David Sisi+1.5
- 20Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Ian McKinley
- 23Tommaso Castello
Ireland
- 1Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 2Sean Cronin+4.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Ultan Dillane
- 5Quinn Roux
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jordi Murphy
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Chris Farrell
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.