Ireland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 14
10 March 2019Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 4.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.7 mm
- Wind
- 41 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Jordan Larmour-6.3
Replacements
- 16Niall Scannell
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18John Ryan
- 19Ultan Dillane
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21John Cooney
- 22Jack Carty
- 23Andrew Conway
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Demba Bamba-4.4
- 4Felix Lambey
- 5Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Arthur Iturria
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Yoann Huget+2.1
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Etienne Falgoux
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Paul Willemse-0.7
- 20Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 21Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 22Anthony Belleau
- 23Maxime Médard+1.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.