South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 17
20 July 2019Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 8.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Rynhardt Elstadt
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Francois Louw+9.7
- 9Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Sbu Nkosi
- 15Warrick Gelant
Replacements
- 16Schalk Brits
- 17Lizo Gqoboka
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Marvin Orie
- 20Marcell Coetzee-4.4
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22Francois Steyn+7.8
- 23Dillyn Leyds
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Folau Fainga'a
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Rory Arnold-6.0
- 6Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Isi Naisarani
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Reece Hodge
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
- 15Tom Banks
Replacements
- 16Jordan Uelese
- 17Harry Johnson-Holmes
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Rob Simmons-1.5
- 20Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 21Will Genia+2.0
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Kurtley Beale+3.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 5 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.