Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 3
22 September 2019International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 07:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 15 m
- Temperature
- 22.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 15.6 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
35.50999,139.60638 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best(c)
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Andrew Conway
- 15Jordan Larmour-6.3
Replacements
- 16Niall Scannell
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Luke McGrath
- 22Jack Carty
- 23Chris Farrell
Scotland
- 1Allan Dell-3.1
- 2Stuart McInally(c)-3.8
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Sean Maitland+4.2
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Duncan Taylor
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Scott Cummings+2.0
- 20Blade Thomson
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Chris Harris+7.0
- 23Darcy Graham-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 393m | Carry metres | 301m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 17 | Defenders beaten | 8 |
| 2 | Offloads | 5 |
| 95 | Passes | 180 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 135 | Tackles made | 163 |
| 94.0% | Tackle success | 91.0% |
| 8 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 93.3% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 10 | Scrums won | 1 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 96 | Rucks won | 94 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Kicks from hand | 27 |
| 1018m | Kick metres | 888m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.