Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 12
1 February 2020Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 8.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 49 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rob Herring+3.4
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6CJ Stander
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Andrew Conway
- 15Jordan Larmour-6.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Devin Toner+4.4
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21John Cooney
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Robbie Henshaw-3.3
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Fraser Brown-1.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Scott Cummings+2.0
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Nick Haining
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Adam Hastings+8.7
- 11Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Allan Dell-3.1
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Ben Toolis
- 20Cornell du Preez
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Rory Hutchinson
- 23Chris Harris+7.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.