Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
42 – 0
1 February 2020Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 8.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 41 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Johnny McNicholl
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Rob Evans+7.5
- 18Leon Brown
- 19Cory Hill+7.7
- 20Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 21Rhys Webb+1.9
- 22Jarrod Evans
- 23Nick Tompkins-1.1
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Luca Bigi
- 3Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 4Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 5Niccolò Cannone
- 6Jake Polledri
- 7Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 8Braam Steyn+4.4
- 9Callum Braley
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Carlo Canna+1.5
- 13Luca Morisi+0.0
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15Matteo Minozzi
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | — |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.