France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 27
31 October 2020Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 20:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 13.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.9 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Mohamed Haouas
- 4Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Charles Ollivon(c)-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 12Arthur Vincent
- 13Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 14Vincent Rattez
- 15Anthony Bouthier
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 18Demba Bamba-4.4
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Dylan Cretin
- 21Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 22Arthur Retiere
- 23Thomas Ramos+6.3
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rob Herring+3.4
- 3Andrew Porter
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Caelan Doris-11.4
- 7Will Connors
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11Hugo Keenan-3.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Andrew Conway
- 15Jacob Stockdale-3.8
Replacements
- 16Dave Heffernan
- 17Ed Byrne
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Ultan Dillane
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Chris Farrell
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.