England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
6 – 11
6 February 2021Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 4.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.7 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Jonny Hill
- 6Mark Wilson
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Beno Obano
- 18Harry Williams
- 19Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 20Ben Earl+3.7
- 21Dan Robson
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Max Malins
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Scott Cummings+2.0
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Cameron Redpath
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg(c)
Replacements
- 16Dave Cherry-4.9
- 17Oli Kebble
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Richie Gray-0.1
- 20Gary Graham
- 21Scott Steele
- 22Jaco van der Walt
- 23Huw Jones-6.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.