Ireland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 15
14 February 2021Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 9.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.4 mm
- Wind
- 45 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rob Herring+3.4
- 3Andrew Porter
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5Iain Henderson(c)-1.4
- 6Rhys Ruddock
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Billy Burns
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Ed Byrne
- 18Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 19Ultan Dillane
- 20Will Connors
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Mohamed Haouas
- 4Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 7Charles Ollivon(c)-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Gabin Villière
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Arthur Vincent
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Brice Dulin-3.5
Replacements
- 16Pierre Bourgarit
- 17Hassane Kolingar
- 18Uini Atonio+0.4
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Dylan Cretin
- 21Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 22Anthony Bouthier
- 23Teddy Thomas
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.