Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
7 – 48
13 March 2021Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 12.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.4 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Luca Bigi(c)
- 3Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5David Sisi+1.5
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Johan Meyer
- 8Michele Lamaro
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Carlo Canna+1.5
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 15Jacopo Trulla
Replacements
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Cory Hill+7.7
- 5Alun Wyn Jones(c)-0.4
- 6Josh Navidi+6.8
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Leon Brown
- 19Jake Ball+1.0
- 20Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22Callum Sheedy
- 23Uilisi Halaholo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 7 |
| 1 | Conversions | 5 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.