Scotland v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 27
14 March 2021Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 5.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Scott Cummings+2.0
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg(c)
Replacements
- 16Dave Cherry-4.9
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 20Nick Haining
- 21Scott Steele
- 22Huw Jones-6.4
- 23Darcy Graham-3.0
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rob Herring+3.4
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 7Will Connors
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Ryan Baird-0.9
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Billy Burns
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.