Ireland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 7
5 February 2022Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 7.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.9 mm
- Wind
- 44 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Caelan Doris-11.4
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11Mack Hansen-4.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Andrew Conway
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Ryan Baird-0.9
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23James Hume
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ryan Elias+3.4
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Ellis Jenkins
- 7Taine Basham
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Biggar(c)+0.4
- 11Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 12Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 13Josh Adams+7.4
- 14Johnny McNicholl
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Dewi Lake-5.3
- 17Gareth Thomas
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Ben Carter
- 20Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Callum Sheedy
- 23Owen Watkin-4.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.