Italy v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
0 – 33
13 February 2022Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v England
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 9.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.9 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 3Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Braam Steyn+4.4
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Toa Halafihi
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Marco Zanon
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Federico Mori
- 15Edoardo Padovani+0.5
Replacements
- 16Hame Faiva
- 17Cherif Traore
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 20Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 21Giovanni Pettinelli
- 22Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 23Leonardo Marin+10.6
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 5Nick Isiekwe
- 6Maro Itoje-12.4
- 7Tom Curry(c)+0.8
- 8Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 9Harry Randall
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Jack Nowell+4.7
- 12Henry Slade0.0
- 13Joe Marchant
- 14Max Malins
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Kyle Sinckler
- 19Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 20Sam Simmonds
- 21Ben Youngs+2.3
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Elliot Daly-1.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 5 |
| — | Conversions | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.