England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 19
26 February 2022Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 5.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 5Maro Itoje-12.4
- 6Courtney Lawes(c)-2.7
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 9Harry Randall
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Jack Nowell+4.7
- 12Henry Slade0.0
- 13Elliot Daly-1.4
- 14Max Malins
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Nick Isiekwe
- 20Sam Simmonds
- 21Ben Youngs+2.3
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Joe Marchant
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ryan Elias+3.4
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Adam Beard(c)+1.0
- 6Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 7Taine Basham
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Biggar(c)+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 13Owen Watkin-4.4
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Dewi Lake-5.3
- 17Gareth Thomas
- 18Leon Brown
- 19Seb Davies
- 20Jac Morgan+0.3
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 23Jonathan Davies+5.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.