Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
57 – 6
28 February 2022Dublin, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Elevation
- 14 m
- Temperature
- 7.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.1 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5Ryan Baird-0.9
- 6Peter O’Mahony(c)-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Joey Carbery+2.6
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Mike Lowry
Replacements
- 16Rob Herring+3.4
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Kieran Treadwell
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 23James Hume
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 3Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Giovanni Pettinelli
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Toa Halafihi
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Pierre Bruno
- 15Edoardo Padovani+0.5
Replacements
- 16Hame Faiva
- 17Ivan Nemer
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19David Sisi+1.5
- 20Manuel Zuliani
- 21Braam Steyn+4.4
- 22Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 23Marco Zanon
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | — |
| 6 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.