England v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 32
12 March 2022Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 9.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.9 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 6Courtney Lawes(c)-2.7
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Sam Simmonds
- 9Harry Randall
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Jack Nowell+4.7
- 12Henry Slade0.0
- 13Joe Marchant
- 14Max Malins
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Jamie Blamire
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 20Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 21Ben Youngs+2.3
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Elliot Daly-1.4
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Andrew Conway
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Rob Herring+3.4
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Robbie Henshaw-3.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 4 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.