Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 22
19 March 2022Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 9.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Adam Beard(c)+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Seb Davies
- 7Josh Navidi+6.8
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar(c)+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Uilisi Halaholo
- 13Owen Watkin-4.4
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Johnny McNicholl
Replacements
- 16Bradley Roberts
- 17Wyn Jones+0.5
- 18Leon Brown
- 19Will Rowlands-7.2
- 20Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Callum Sheedy
- 23Nick Tompkins-1.1
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 4Marco Fuser
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Giovanni Pettinelli
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Toa Halafihi
- 9Callum Braley
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Luca Bigi
- 17Cherif Traore
- 18Filippo Alongi
- 19David Sisi+1.5
- 20Niccolò Cannone
- 21Braam Steyn+4.4
- 22Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 23Marco Zanon
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.