South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 35
13 August 2022Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 16.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 43 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Joseph Dweba
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Jaden Hendrikse+5.8
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Franco Mostert-1.0
- 20Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 21Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 22Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 23Willie le Roux+4.6
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12David Havili+0.9
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Jordie Barrett+6.6
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17George Bower+1.1
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 20Akira Ioane
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Quinn Tupaea-8.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.