New Zealand v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
53 – 3
3 September 2022FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
What the model says about New Zealand v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 46 m
- Temperature
- 13.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Sam Cane(c)+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12David Havili+0.9
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Jordie Barrett+6.6
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17George Bower+1.1
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 20Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Quinn Tupaea-8.0
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Pablo Matera-1.1
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 12Matias Orlando-3.8
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Emiliano Boffelli
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Santiago Socino
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Eduardo Bello
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Juan Martín González
- 21Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 22Benjamin Urdapilleta
- 23Lucio Cinti-5.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | — |
| 6 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.