New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
40 – 14
24 September 2022Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 14.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.8 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock(c)+3.0
- 6Akira Ioane
- 7Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 19Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 20Hoskins Sotutu
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
- 23Sevu Reece-4.1
Australia
- 1James Slipper(c)-3.3
- 2Dave Porecki
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Jed Holloway
- 5Cadeyrn Neville
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Pete Samu-4.3
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Lalakai Foketi
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Tom Wright+11.9
- 15Andrew Kellaway+4.5
Replacements
- 16Folau Fainga'a
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Pone Fa'amausili
- 19Nick Frost-0.3
- 20Fraser McReight+12.2
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Reece Hodge
- 23Jordan Petaia
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.