Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 7
11 February 2023Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 8.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Grant Gilchrist(c)-0.4
- 6Jamie Ritchie(c)-7.2
- 7Luke Crosbie
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Jonny Gray-7.0
- 20Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 23Chris Harris+7.0
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens(c)+2.8
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Christ Tshiunza
- 7Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 8Jac Morgan+0.3
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Joe Hawkins
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Leon Brown
- 19Rhys Davies
- 20Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 21Rhys Webb+1.9
- 22Rhys Patchell
- 23Alex Cuthbert+0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.