Italy v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 34
25 February 2023Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 13.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Pierre Bruno
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Luca Bigi
- 17Federico Zani
- 18Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 19Edoardo Iachizzi
- 20Giovanni Pettinelli
- 21Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 22Luca Morisi+0.0
- 23Tommaso Allan-3.0
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 3Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan(c)-8.4
- 6Caelan Doris-11.4
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Craig Casey+4.3
- 10Ross Byrne
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Bundee Aki-3.0
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 19Ryan Baird-0.9
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Jack Crowley
- 23Jimmy O'Brien
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.