Argentina v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 41
8 July 2023Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
What the model says about Argentina v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 19:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 830 m
- Temperature
- 7.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-32.88968,-68.87990 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Lucio Sordoni
- 4Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Martín González
- 8Rodrigo Bruni-7.2
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Sebastian Cancelliere
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Eduardo Bello
- 19Pedro Rubiolo
- 20Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 21Lautaro Bazan Velez-15.1
- 22Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 23Matias Orlando-3.8
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Josh Lord-2.2
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Sam Cane(c)+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Emoni Narawa
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 19Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 20Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 23Braydon Ennor
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 7 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.