New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 20
15 July 2023Go Media Stadium, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 29 m
- Temperature
- 14.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 44 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Sam Cane(c)+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Mark Tele'a-5.2
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 18Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 19Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 20Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Braydon Ennor
- 23Caleb Clarke+9.0
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth(c)-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 7Franco Mostert-1.0
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Damian Willemse-5.4
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 21Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 22Grant Williams-4.8
- 23Manie Libbok-3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.