Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
7 – 38
29 July 2023Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 09:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 16 m
- Temperature
- 13.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Dave Porecki
- 3Allan Alaalatoa(c)-0.8
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Will Skelton+6.1
- 6Jed Holloway
- 7Tom Hooper-6.0
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Tate McDermott+4.9
- 10Carter Gordon
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Jordan Petaia
- 14Mark Nawaqanitawase
- 15Andrew Kellaway+4.5
Replacements
- 16Jordan Uelese
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Richie Arnold
- 20Rob Leota
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Quade Cooper+4.9
- 23Izaia Perese
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Mark Tele'a-5.2
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 19Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 20Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 21Cam Roigard+11.5
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23Caleb Clarke+9.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.