France v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 13
8 September 2023Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 19:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 25.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 42 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Reda Wardi+2.8
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Cameron Woki-3.5
- 5Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont(c)+8.4
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Gabin Villière
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 21Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 22Arthur Vincent
- 23Melvyn Jaminet
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 7Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 8Ardie Savea(c)-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Mark Tele'a-5.2
- 12Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 20Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22David Havili+0.9
- 23Leicester Faingaʻanuku
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | Possession | 51.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 449m | Carry metres | 631m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 16 | Defenders beaten | 32 |
| 11 | Offloads | 7 |
| 108 | Passes | 154 |
Defence
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 135 | Tackles made | 93 |
| 76.0% | Tackle success | 73.0% |
| 32 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Lineout success | 91.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 80.0% | Scrum success | 71.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 55 | Rucks won | 75 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 44 | Kicks from hand | 39 |
| 1747m | Kick metres | 1312m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.