England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 14
10 February 2024Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 9.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.1 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Jamie George(c)-3.9
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Ethan Roots
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Fraser Dingwall
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Tommy Freeman
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Alex Coles-2.3
- 20Chandler Cunningham-South
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Fin Smith+5.1
- 23Immanuel Feyi-Waboso+0.6
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Elliot Dee+7.1
- 3Keiron Assiratti
- 4Dafydd Jenkins(c)+8.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Alex Mann+5.6
- 7Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Ioan Lloyd
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Cameron Winnett
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Corey Domachowski
- 18Archie Griffin+9.9
- 19Will Rowlands-7.2
- 20Taine Basham
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Cai Evans
- 23Mason Grady+3.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 42.0% | Possession | 58.0% |
| 85.0% | Territory | 15.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 95m | Carry metres | 30m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | — |
| 5 | Defenders beaten | 3 |
| 1 | Offloads | — |
| 32 | Passes | 23 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Tackles made | 20 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 71.0% |
| 3 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 5 |
| 1 | Dominant tackles | 1 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 3 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 50.0% | Scrum success | 50.0% |
| 1 | Scrums won | 1 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Ruck success | 100.0% |
| 12 | Rucks won | 15 |
| — | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kicks from hand | 8 |
| 102m | Kick metres | 156m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | — |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 2 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.