Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
36 – 0
11 February 2024Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 5.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Ryan Baird-0.9
- 7Caelan Doris(c)-11.4
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Craig Casey+4.3
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Calvin Nash
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Jeremy Loughman
- 18Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 21Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 22Harry Byrne
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 3Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Alessandro Izekor
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Michele Lamaro(c)
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Lorenzo Pani
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 40.0% | Territory | 60.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 135m | Carry metres | 97m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | — |
| 12 | Defenders beaten | 5 |
| 2 | Offloads | 3 |
| 44 | Passes | 48 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 44 | Tackles made | 51 |
| 85.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 6 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 3 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 2 | Lineouts won | 2 |
| — | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| — | Scrums won | 1 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 29 | Rucks won | 32 |
| 2 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kicks from hand | 6 |
| 210m | Kick metres | 172m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 2 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 2 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | — |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.