Ireland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 7
24 February 2024Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 5.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Peter O’Mahony(c)-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Calvin Nash
- 15Ciarán Frawley
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Oli Jager
- 19James Ryan-8.4
- 20Ryan Baird-0.9
- 21Jack Conan-2.8
- 22Conor Murray-1.4
- 23Stuart McCloskey+4.8
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Elliot Dee+7.1
- 3Keiron Assiratti
- 4Dafydd Jenkins(c)+8.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Alex Mann+5.6
- 7Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Sam Costelow+2.7
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Cameron Winnett
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Corey Domachowski
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Will Rowlands-7.2
- 20Mackenzie Martin
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Ioan Lloyd
- 23Mason Grady+3.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.