Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 24
16 March 2024Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 7.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.5 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Elliot Dee+7.1
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Dafydd Jenkins(c)+8.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Alex Mann+5.6
- 7Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Sam Costelow+2.7
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Cameron Winnett
Replacements
- 16Evan Lloyd
- 17Kemsley Mathias
- 18Harri O'Connor
- 19Will Rowlands-7.2
- 20Mackenzie Martin
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Ioan Lloyd
- 23Mason Grady+3.4
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Lorenzo Pani
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 19Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 20Ross Vintcent
- 21Manuel Zuliani
- 22Martin Page-Relo
- 23Leonardo Marin+10.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.