Samoa v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 25
5 July 2024Apia Park, Apia
What the model says about Samoa v Italy
- Kick-off
- 04:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 4 m
- Temperature
- 26.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.5 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 9 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Samoa
- 1Aki Seiuli
- 2Sama Malolo
- 3Marco Fepulea'i
- 4Benjamin Nee-Nee
- 5Sam Slade
- 6Theo McFarland(c)
- 7Izaiha Moore-Aiono
- 8OJ Noa
- 9Jonathan Taumateine
- 10D'Angelo Leuila
- 11Nigel Ah Wong
- 12Danny Toala
- 13Alapati Leiua
- 14Sebastian Visinia
- 15Duncan Paia'aua
Replacements
- 16Andrew Tuala
- 17Tietie Tuimauga
- 18Lolani Faleiva
- 19Michael Curry
- 20Iakopo Mapu
- 21Melani Matavao
- 22Afa Moleli
- 23Stacey Ili
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Alessandro Izekor
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Ross Vintcent
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Matt Gallagher
Replacements
- 16Loris Zarantonello
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 19Edoardo Iachizzi
- 20Manuel Zuliani
- 21Lorenzo Cannone
- 22Martin Page-Relo
- 23Leonardo Marin+10.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Samoa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.