England v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 24
2 November 2024Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 12.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Chandler Cunningham-South
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Ben Spencer-1.4
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Tommy Freeman
- 12Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Immanuel Feyi-Waboso+0.6
- 15George Furbank
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Nick Isiekwe
- 20Ben Curry
- 21Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 22Harry Randall
- 23George Ford-2.9
New Zealand
- 1Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 6Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Mark Tele'a-5.2
- 15Will Jordan-8.9
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Samipeni Finau
- 21Cam Roigard+11.5
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 43.0% | Possession | 57.0% |
| 51.0% | Territory | 49.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 88 | Carries | 144 |
| 378m | Carry metres | 483m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 8 |
| 15 | Defenders beaten | 24 |
| 4 | Offloads | 14 |
| 104 | Passes | 211 |
Defence
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 179 | Tackles made | 99 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 24 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 9 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 69 | Rucks won | 108 |
| 3 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Kicks from hand | 30 |
| 687m | Kick metres | 772m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 12 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.