Ireland v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
52 – 17
23 November 2024Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 15:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 12.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 32.2 mm
- Wind
- 56 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Gus McCarthy
- 3Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Cormac Izuchukwu
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Craig Casey+4.3
- 10Sam Prendergast
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Jamie Osborne
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 18Thomas Clarkson
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Cian Prendergast
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Ciarán Frawley
- 23Stuart McCloskey+4.8
Fiji
- 1Eroni Mawi
- 2Tevita Ikanivere
- 3Luke Tagi
- 4Mesake Vocevoce
- 5Temo Mayanavanua
- 6Meli Derenalagi
- 7Kitione Salawa
- 8Elia Canakaivata
- 9Frank Lomani
- 10Caleb Muntz
- 11Ponipate Loganimasi
- 12Josua Tuisova
- 13Waisea Nayacalevu
- 14Jiuta Wainiqolo
- 15Vuate Karawalevu
Replacements
- 16Sam Matavesi
- 17Haereiti Hetet
- 18Samu Tawake
- 19Setareki Turagacoke
- 20Albert Tuisue
- 21Peni Matawalu
- 22Vilimoni Botitu
- 23Sireli Maqala
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 62.0% | Possession | 38.0% |
| 65.0% | Territory | 35.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 136 | Carries | 88 |
| 523m | Carry metres | 264m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 33 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 12 | Offloads | 10 |
| 234 | Passes | 103 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 105 | Tackles made | 137 |
| 77.0% | Tackle success | 70.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 33 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 83.0% | Lineout success | 67.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 88.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 93.0% |
| 90 | Rucks won | 57 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kicks from hand | 17 |
| 514m | Kick metres | 434m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 2 |
| 6 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.