Italy v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
11 – 29
23 November 2024Allianz Stadium
What the model says about Italy v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 281 m
- Temperature
- -2.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 5Dino Lamb
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Ross Vintcent
- 9Martin Page-Relo
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Jacopo Trulla
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 6Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Mark Tele'a-5.2
- 15Will Jordan-8.9
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 20Peter Lakai+5.9
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22David Havili+0.9
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 43.0% | Possession | 57.0% |
| 38.0% | Territory | 62.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | Carries | 146 |
| 219m | Carry metres | 453m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 9 | Defenders beaten | 31 |
| 7 | Offloads | 11 |
| 71 | Passes | 185 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 165 | Tackles made | 104 |
| 76.0% | Tackle success | 84.0% |
| 31 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 7 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 79.0% | Lineout success | 77.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 88.0% | Scrum success | 91.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 10 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 70 | Rucks won | 93 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 447m | Kick metres | 485m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.