Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 15
8 February 2025Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 8.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 13.6 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Martin Page-Relo
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Ange Capuozzo-6.5
- 15Tommaso Allan-3.0
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Luca Rizzoli
- 18Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 19Dino Lamb
- 20Manuel Zuliani
- 21Ross Vintcent
- 22Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 23Jacopo Trulla
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Evan Lloyd
- 3Henry Thomas
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Freddie Thomas
- 6James Botham+3.8
- 7Jac Morgan+0.3
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Ben Thomas
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Eddie James
- 13Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 14Tom Rogers
- 15Blair Murray
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Keiron Assiratti
- 19Teddy Williams
- 20Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 21Rhodri Williams
- 22Dan Edwards
- 23Josh Hathaway
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | Possession | 54.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 74 | Carries | 111 |
| 224m | Carry metres | 235m |
| 1 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 15 | Defenders beaten | 20 |
| — | Offloads | 3 |
| 63 | Passes | 137 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 144 | Tackles made | 86 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 20 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 15 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Lineout success | 94.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 16 |
| 78.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 1 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 60 | Rucks won | 91 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | Kicks from hand | 41 |
| 1322m | Kick metres | 1348m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.