Wales v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
14 – 68
15 March 2025Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v England
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 4.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Elliot Dee+7.1
- 3WillGriff John
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 6Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 7Jac Morgan+0.3
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 11Joe Roberts
- 12Ben Thomas
- 13Max Llewellyn
- 14Ellis Mee
- 15Blair Murray
Replacements
- 16Dewi Lake-5.3
- 17Gareth Thomas
- 18Keiron Assiratti
- 19Teddy Williams
- 20Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 21Rhodri Williams
- 22Jarrod Evans
- 23Nick Tompkins-1.1
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Tom Curry+0.8
- 7Ben Curry
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10Fin Smith+5.1
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Fraser Dingwall
- 13Tommy Freeman
- 14Tom Roebuck
- 15Marcus Smith-0.6
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Joe Heyes
- 19Chandler Cunningham-South
- 20Henry Pollock
- 21Tom Willis
- 22Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 23George Ford-2.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 116 | Carries | 109 |
| 290m | Carry metres | 398m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 25 | Defenders beaten | 21 |
| 5 | Offloads | 6 |
| 196 | Passes | 148 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 130 | Tackles made | 135 |
| 76.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 21 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 25 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 87.0% |
| 18 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 80.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 87 | Rucks won | 83 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 33 |
| 617m | Kick metres | 930m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 10 |
| 2 | Conversions | 9 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.