Italy v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 22
15 March 2025Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 14.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Dino Lamb
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Martin Page-Relo
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex(c)
- 14Ange Capuozzo-6.5
- 15Tommaso Allan-3.0
Replacements
- 16Giacomo Nicotera
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 19Niccolò Cannone
- 20Michele Lamaro
- 21Ross Vintcent
- 22Stephen Varney-4.1
- 23Leonardo Marin+10.6
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 4James Ryan-8.4
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Jack Conan-2.8
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris(c)-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Gus McCarthy
- 17Jack Boyle
- 18Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 19Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Sam Prendergast
- 23Bundee Aki-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 45.0% | Possession | 55.0% |
| 42.0% | Territory | 58.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Carries | 122 |
| 301m | Carry metres | 313m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 28 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 3 | Offloads | 1 |
| 143 | Passes | 191 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 171 | Tackles made | 129 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 28 |
| 19 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 75 | Rucks won | 94 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 18 |
| 705m | Kick metres | 537m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.