USA v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
5 – 40
20 July 2025Los Angeles, Los Angeles
What the model says about USA v England
- Elevation
- 91 m
- Temperature
- 22.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 5 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
USA
- 1Ezekiel Lindenmuth
- 2Kaleb Geiger
- 3Pono Davis
- 4Marno Redelinghuys
- 5Tevita Naqali
- 6Benjamin Bonasso(c)
- 7Cory Daniel
- 8Jamason Fa'anana-Schultz
- 9Ruben de Haas
- 10Chris Hilsenbeck
- 11Toby Fricker
- 12Tom Pittman
- 13Dominic Besag
- 14Rufus McLean
- 15Erich Storti
Replacements
- 16Shilo Klein
- 17Jack Iscaro
- 18Tonga Kofe
- 19Vili Helu
- 20Christian Poidevin
- 21Makeen Alikhan
- 22Juan Philip Smith
- 23Lauina Futi
England
- 1Bevan Rodd
- 2Curtis Langdon
- 3Asher Opoku-Fordjour
- 4Alex Coles-2.3
- 5Arthur Clark
- 6Chandler Cunningham-South
- 7Guy Pepper
- 8Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 9Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 10George Ford(c)-2.9
- 11Cadan Murley
- 12Max Ojomoh
- 13Luke Northmore
- 14Immanuel Feyi-Waboso+0.6
- 15Joe Carpenter
Replacements
- 16Gabriel Oghre
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Trevor Davison
- 19Ted Hill
- 20Ben Curry
- 21Harry Randall
- 22Charlie Atkinson
- 23Oscar Beard
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| USA | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 43.0% | Possession | 57.0% |
| 32.0% | Territory | 68.0% |
Attack
| USA | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 76 | Carries | 129 |
| 246m | Carry metres | 642m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | 13 |
| 7 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 3 | Offloads | 5 |
| 86 | Passes | 181 |
Defence
| USA | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 130 | Tackles made | 87 |
| 77.0% | Tackle success | 87.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| USA | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 84.0% | Lineout success | 88.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 22 |
| 82.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 9 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| USA | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 54 | Rucks won | 74 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| USA | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Kicks from hand | 36 |
| 1137m | Kick metres | 1180m |
Discipline
| USA | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 15 |
Scoring
| USA | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| — | Conversions | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.