Ireland v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 26
1 November 2025Soldier Field, Chicago · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 194 m
- Temperature
- 7.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.9 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4James Ryan-8.4
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Ryan Baird-0.9
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Tommy O'Brien
- 15Jamie Osborne
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Paddy McCarthy
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Caelan Doris-11.4
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Sam Prendergast
- 23Bundee Aki-3.0
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Fabian Holland
- 6Simon Parker
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Peter Lakai+5.9
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 14Leroy Carter
- 15Will Jordan-8.9
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 18Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 19Josh Lord-2.2
- 20Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Leicester Faingaʻanuku
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 44.0% | Possession | 56.0% |
| 51.0% | Territory | 49.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 86 | Carries | 121 |
| 285m | Carry metres | 479m |
| 2 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 11 | Defenders beaten | 24 |
| 3 | Offloads | 10 |
| 122 | Passes | 196 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 152 | Tackles made | 111 |
| 75.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 24 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 7 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 69.0% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 86.0% |
| 9 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 67 | Rucks won | 90 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 884m | Kick metres | 854m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.