England v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 19
15 November 2025Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 11.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.6 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Fin Baxter
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Joe Heyes
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Alex Coles-2.3
- 6Guy Pepper
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Immanuel Feyi-Waboso+0.6
- 12Fraser Dingwall
- 13Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 14Tom Roebuck
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Chandler Cunningham-South
- 20Tom Curry+0.8
- 21Henry Pollock
- 22Ben Spencer-1.4
- 23Marcus Smith-0.6
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Josh Lord-2.2
- 6Simon Parker
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Peter Lakai+5.9
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Leicester Faingaʻanuku
- 12Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 13Billy Proctor
- 14Leroy Carter
- 15Will Jordan-8.9
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 18Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 19Sam Darry
- 20Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 45.0% | Possession | 55.0% |
| 47.0% | Territory | 53.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 103 | Carries | 130 |
| 464m | Carry metres | 371m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 17 | Defenders beaten | 24 |
| 7 | Offloads | 3 |
| 118 | Passes | 176 |
Defence
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 191 | Tackles made | 120 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 24 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 57.0% | Lineout success | 87.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 86.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 74 | Rucks won | 108 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Kicks from hand | 29 |
| 912m | Kick metres | 868m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.