Wales v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 52
22 November 2025Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 6.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 11.6 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Rhys Carré-1.2
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Keiron Assiratti
- 4Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Alex Mann+5.6
- 7Harri Deaves
- 8Taine Plumtree
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Edwards
- 11Tom Rogers
- 12Joe Hawkins
- 13Max Llewellyn
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Blair Murray
Replacements
- 16Brodie Coghlan
- 17Gareth Thomas
- 18Archie Griffin+9.9
- 19Freddie Thomas
- 20Morgan Morse
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Jarrod Evans
- 23Nick Tompkins-1.1
New Zealand
- 1Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 2Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 3Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Fabian Holland
- 6Simon Parker
- 7Du'Plessis Kirifi
- 8Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 9Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 10Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Ruben Love
Replacements
- 16George Bell
- 17George Bower+1.1
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Josh Lord-2.2
- 20Christian Lio-Willie
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Leicester Faingaʻanuku
- 23Sevu Reece-4.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 33.0% | Possession | 67.0% |
| 45.0% | Territory | 55.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Carries | 167 |
| 278m | Carry metres | 542m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 14 | Defenders beaten | 38 |
| 3 | Offloads | 11 |
| 99 | Passes | 283 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 223 | Tackles made | 85 |
| 77.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 38 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 14 |
| 5 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| — | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 100.0% |
| 59 | Rucks won | 137 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kicks from hand | 28 |
| 569m | Kick metres | 718m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 7 |
| 3 | Conversions | 7 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.