England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
48 – 7
7 February 2026Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 8.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.4 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Joe Heyes
- 4Alex Coles-2.3
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Guy Pepper
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Henry Arundell
- 12Fraser Dingwall
- 13Tommy Freeman
- 14Tom Roebuck
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Bevan Rodd
- 18Trevor Davison
- 19Maro Itoje-12.4
- 20Tom Curry+0.8
- 21Henry Pollock
- 22Ben Spencer-1.4
- 23Marcus Smith-0.6
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Archie Griffin+9.9
- 4Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Alex Mann+5.6
- 7Josh MacLeod
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Edwards
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Ben Thomas
- 13Eddie James
- 14Ellis Mee
- 15Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
Replacements
- 16Liam Belcher
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Ben Carter
- 20Taine Plumtree
- 21Harri Deaves
- 22Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 23Mason Grady+3.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 58.0% | Territory | 42.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 121 | Carries | 88 |
| 570m | Carry metres | 282m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 23 | Defenders beaten | 21 |
| 9 | Offloads | 1 |
| 176 | Passes | 89 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 132 | Tackles made | 151 |
| 85.0% | Tackle success | 79.0% |
| 21 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 23 |
| 16 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Lineout success | 76.0% |
| 19 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 75.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 79 | Rucks won | 69 |
| 12 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 42 | Kicks from hand | 38 |
| 1376m | Kick metres | 1151m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 4 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 4 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.