Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 13
14 February 2026Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 2.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.8 mm
- Wind
- 40 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Jeremy Loughman
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Thomas Clarkson
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Cormac Izuchukwu
- 7Caelan Doris-11.4
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Craig Casey+4.3
- 10Sam Prendergast
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Robert Baloucoune
- 15Jamie Osborne
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 18Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 19Edwin Edogbo
- 20Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 21Nick Timoney
- 22Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 23Jack Crowley
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 6Michele Lamaro
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 13Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Lorenzo Pani
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 42.0% | Territory | 58.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 125 | Carries | 125 |
| 455m | Carry metres | 391m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 30 | Defenders beaten | 24 |
| 9 | Offloads | 10 |
| 224 | Passes | 200 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 166 | Tackles made | 165 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 24 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 30 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 20 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 88.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 83.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 101 | Rucks won | 93 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kicks from hand | 22 |
| 726m | Kick metres | 519m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 15 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.